← Back to fixtures

Le Mans FC vs Brest

Sat 22 Aug 2026, 18:45 UTC · Round 1 · Data confidence: Low (promoted/new team)

Match Result (1X2)

Le Mans FC win: 42.4%

Draw: 26.9%

Brest win: 30.7%

Predicted: Le Mans FC

Both Teams to Score

Probability of Yes: 45.9%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 43.6%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.13

More corners: Le Mans FC (50.9% home / 49.1% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Brest

Yes

Probability Brest wins or draws: 55.7%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Le Mans FC Clearest lean of the available outcomes (42% vs next-best 31%). (42.0% model probability) Low

Total Goals Under 2.5 (56.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Brest win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (56.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.